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And as of now, that seems very close to happening. As soon as it does, though, the question will shift. People will start asking not about which countries will join the deal and how quickly, but about whether any of these countries are on track to do what they've already said they would under the agreement - namely, hit their voluntarily pledged targets to cut their emissions. And in many cases, that may be a lot harder than simply getting the agreement ratified or otherwise approved at home. Take the United States. It pledged, as part of the Paris process, to cut its emissions 2. And it outlined a bevy of policies, most prominently the contested Clean Power Plan, in order to get there.

Since then, there have been questions about how achievable this U. S. The paper, by Jeffery Greenblatt and Max Wei of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, does the math on current and proposed future U. S. They estimate that we emitted between 6. That's right: The high end and low end estimate diverge by over a billion tons. Based on these numbers, Greenblatt and Wei calculate that the U.

S. However, the study finds that based on three sets of expected policies - already finalized laws or regulations (like the Clean Power Plan); suggested laws, regulations, or executive actions; and future potential actions that have already been . Here's where the new research partly merges with one of the most contentious matters in current climate policy - the question of how much of the fast- acting greenhouse gas methane we're emitting, and where it is coming from. Earlier this year, the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency increased its estimate for how much methane is being emitted by the oil and gas sector, and by the U. S. The new study has more or less done something similar. In particular, he said, in 2.

Greenblatt emphasized that assumptions of higher methane emissions aren't the only reason that the U. S. And although this rarely gets mentioned, the U. S.'s overall policy goal relies not only on emitting less greenhouse gases, but also on storing large amounts in forests. Problems such as these extend far beyond the U.

S., of course. Similar questions are sure to be asked about other countries' pledges, too. Moreover, multiple analyses have found that even if you hold countries at their word and they do achieve their pledges, it still won't be enough to keep the warming of the planet below 2 degrees Celsius, which is an explicit target of the Paris agreement. So no matter what, global ambition is going to have to be raised. They set their own target, and they set out a path to meet it as best they could.

I think if they need to work a little harder, that's not an unexpected outcome.

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